Roland-Garros 2026 — Draw Projection Report

Clay · Exact-bracket DP over Elo / Surface-Elo / Glicko (50/50 surface+overall blend)

Ratings regenerated from OnCourt through 2026-05-23 · all 256 players matched, zero fallbacks.

Field note: Alcaraz (wrist) and Arthur Fils (seed 17, injury) are both OUT — this is why the men's top end is so concentrated on Sinner.

Odds are American moneyline. Market = sportsbook/prediction-market lines (implied % is vig-inclusive). Fair line = the model's own probability expressed as a no-vig moneyline. Where model and market diverge, the cause is usually one of two Elo effects: it lags fast risers (Jodar, Fonseca, Andreeva) and fades faded-but-pedigreed players (Swiatek). The Glicko column is the sanity check on Elo over-concentration.

MEN'S SINGLES

1 · Contenders — top 15 (model fair line vs. market)

Player	Seed	Elo	Glicko	Fair line	Market	Read
Jannik Sinner	1	78.4%	52.3%	-360	-310	The rare justified mega-favorite; Glicko more cautious
Alexander Zverev	2	6.6%	9.9%	+1405	+1100	Clear #2; fair
Novak Djokovic	3	5.5%	9.6%	+1735	+1200	Market pays up for pedigree
Casper Ruud	15	1.7%	2.2%	+5680	+2500	Market shorter on the two-time finalist
Daniil Medvedev	6	1.5%	2.8%	+6480	+5000	Fair; shaky on clay
Rafael Jodar	27	0.7%	2.1%	+13790	+2200	Big gap — market buys the young-Spaniard hype; Elo lags risers
Jiri Lehecka	12	0.6%	0.6%	+17140	+10000	Fair
Tommy Paul	24	0.5%	2.0%	+19510	+10000	Glicko likes him ~4× more than Elo
Alexander Blockx	—	0.4%	0.3%	+24900	+12000	Unseeded sleeper
Valentin Vacherot	16	0.4%	0.4%	+26215	+12000	Live in the soft Q2
Luciano Darderi	14	0.4%	1.0%	+26925	+12000	Clay-capable; Glicko higher
Flavio Cobolli	10	0.2%	0.6%	+41565	+10000	Young, improving on dirt
Francisco Cerundolo	25	0.2%	1.2%	+49900	+10000	Clay specialist; Glicko ~6× Elo
Andrey Rublev	11	0.2%	0.5%	+52530	+6500	Flat on clay lately
Felix Auger-Aliassime	4	0.2%	0.6%	+52530	+9000	#4 seed the model dismisses on clay

Sinner's market -310 is the second-shortest pre-tournament Slam price since 1990 (only 2009 Nadal was shorter). One board still listed the withdrawn Fils at +2200 — treat market as approximate.

2 · Quarter by quarter — fair odds to win each quarter (reach the SF)

Market = the book's "Quarter Winner" line (captured 24 May 2026). Where the model's fair line is longer than the market, the book rates that player higher than we do, and vice-versa.

Q1 — Sinner's fortress

Player	Seed	P(win Q)	Fair line	Market
Jannik Sinner	1	90.5%	-955	-1200
Luciano Darderi	14	2.0%	+4900	+2200
Alexander Bublik	9	1.2%	+8235	+2800
Frances Tiafoe	19	1.1%	+8990	+3500

Q2 — wide open (no real favorite — the soft quarter)

Player	Seed	P(win Q)	Fair line	Market
Daniil Medvedev	6	27.0%	+270	+400
Valentin Vacherot	16	12.3%	+715	+800
Felix Auger-Aliassime	4	8.6%	+1065	+650
Flavio Cobolli	10	8.2%	+1120	+850
Francisco Cerundolo	25	8.0%	+1150	+600
Cameron Norrie	20	6.4%	+1460	+2000

Q3 — Djokovic / Ruud

Player	Seed	P(win Q)	Fair line	Market
Novak Djokovic	3	37.9%	+165	+240
Casper Ruud	15	16.9%	+490	+300
Tommy Paul	24	8.9%	+1025	+1100
Alexander Blockx	—	8.0%	+1150	+2200
Andrey Rublev	11	4.4%	+2175	+800
Dino Prizmic	—	3.9%	+2465	+2000

Q4 — Zverev (most contested top seed)

Player	Seed	P(win Q)	Fair line	Market
Alexander Zverev	2	50.0%	-100	-165
Rafael Jodar	27	14.0%	+615	+275
Jiri Lehecka	12	10.8%	+825	+1200
Pablo Llamas Ruiz	—	4.2%	+2280	—
Karen Khachanov	13	4.1%	+2340	+1400
Taylor Fritz	7	3.2%	+3025	+1600

Pattern: the market is consistently shorter than the model on clay specialists & pedigree — F. Cerundolo (+600 vs +1150), Rublev (+800 vs +2175), Ruud, and the hyped Jodar (+275 vs +615) — while the model is more bullish on the very top seeds and on sleeper Blockx (+1150 vs +2200).

WOMEN'S SINGLES

1 · Contenders — top 15 (model fair line vs. market)

Player	Seed	Elo	Glicko	Fair line	Market	Read
Aryna Sabalenka	1	25.7%	23.5%	+290	+250	Fair; model marginally low
Coco Gauff	4	15.7%	9.5%	+535	+650	Model slightly higher; Elo hotter than Glicko
Elina Svitolina	7	15.4%	6.8%	+550	+1600	Big gap — model overrates (soft path + clay Elo); market far longer
Elena Rybakina	2	10.0%	13.6%	+905	+650	Fair; Glicko & market both rate her live
Marta Kostyuk	15	6.8%	2.6%	+1370	+2500	Model standout; Glicko cautious
Mirra Andreeva	8	5.7%	6.0%	+1640	+900	Market higher (rising player, Elo lag)
Jessica Pegula	5	5.5%	5.4%	+1720	+4000	Model rates her above the market
Iga Swiatek	3	5.4%	11.1%	+1770	+275	Biggest gap — model fades the clay queen; recent-form Elo ignores pedigree
Anastasia Potapova	28	1.9%	1.1%	+5305	longshot	Best of the chasers
Karolina Muchova	10	1.1%	2.6%	+8830	+4000	Market much shorter; live when healthy
Sorana Cirstea	18	1.0%	0.9%	+10210	longshot	Veteran spoiler
Qinwen Zheng	—	0.8%	2.3%	+11805	+4000	Market much shorter than model
Victoria Mboko	9	0.6%	0.6%	+17755	+4000	Young riser; market shorter
Anhelina Kalinina	—	0.4%	1.2%	+22625	longshot	Clay-comfortable
Hailey Baptiste	26	0.4%	0.1%	+24900	longshot	Outsider

Genuinely open — market has nobody shorter than ~+220 (Polymarket: Sabalenka 33%, Swiatek 32%).

2 · Quarter by quarter — fair odds to win each quarter (reach the SF)

Market = the book's "Quarter Winner" line (captured 24 May 2026).

Q1 — Sabalenka

Player	Seed	P(win Q)	Fair line	Market
Aryna Sabalenka	1	57.0%	-135	-185
Jessica Pegula	5	21.5%	+365	+650
Victoria Mboko	9	4.5%	+2120	+800
Madison Keys	19	3.7%	+2605	+1400
Naomi Osaka	16	3.4%	+2840	+1100

Q2 — Gauff

Player	Seed	P(win Q)	Fair line	Market
Coco Gauff	4	46.3%	+115	+110
Anastasia Potapova	28	13.4%	+645	+1100
Qinwen Zheng	—	7.7%	+1200	+650
Anhelina Kalinina	—	6.1%	+1540	+1600
Amanda Anisimova	6	5.0%	+1900	+650
Linda Noskova	12	4.3%	+2225	+1000

Q3 — the loaded quarter (Svitolina / Kostyuk / Swiatek)

Player	Seed	P(win Q)	Fair line	Market
Elina Svitolina	7	40.0%	+150	+275
Marta Kostyuk	15	25.1%	+300	+500
Iga Swiatek	3	20.9%	+380	-125
Jelena Ostapenko	29	2.0%	+4900	+2200
Belinda Bencic	11	1.9%	+5165	+1600

Q4 — Rybakina / Andreeva coin-flip

Player	Seed	P(win Q)	Fair line	Market
Elena Rybakina	2	35.2%	+185	+160
Mirra Andreeva	8	27.5%	+265	+175
Karolina Muchova	10	10.2%	+880	+650
Sorana Cirstea	18	9.3%	+975	+1100
Hailey Baptiste	26	4.3%	+2225	+2800

Headline gap: the market makes Swiatek the Q3 favorite at -125 (the model has her 3rd in the quarter at +380), and is broadly shorter on the WTA pack (Mboko, Anisimova, Keys) — while the model overrates Svitolina. Same story as the outright market.

Methodology & caveats

Engine: exact bracket dynamic program (no simulation) over a 128 draw; per-match win prob from Elo (Sackmann) and Glicko-2 (RD-adjusted), 50/50 surface+overall blend. Sensitivity-tested at 0.5/0.6/0.7 surface weight — Sinner holds 75–78% and the ordering doesn't move.
Stage definitions: "win the quarter" = reach the semifinal (one of 4 quarter-winners). "Reach the final" = win your half. (A prior off-by-one in the tool's Reach …% CSV column labels has since been fixed in tournament_sim.py; the figures here are correct.)
Elo vs Glicko (why they differ on Sinner): the two systems aren't on a common scale. Elo separates Sinner +325 above the next-best player; Glicko only +183 — so per match vs the field he's 98% (Elo) vs 94% (Glicko), and over 7 rounds that compounds to a 78% vs 52% title number. The market (~75%) sits near Elo. Read the two model columns as a range, not a contradiction.
Known limits: Elo concentrates probability on dominant favorites, lags fast risers (Jodar, Fonseca, Andreeva), and fades pedigreed-but-cold players (Swiatek). It is also top-heavy — it assigns the mid-tier (esp. WTA: Muchova, Zheng, Mboko) less than the market does. Sharp model-vs-market gaps usually flag one of these, not a true coin-flip edge.
Market lines: outright odds are a multi-book snapshot (DraftKings / ESPN / Polymarket); per-quarter odds are from a book's "Quarter Winner" markets (24 May 2026). Odds vary by sportsbook and move. "longshot" = no specific line widely posted.

Generated by draw_analysis · tennis_db