NFL Wind Under — scores.wiki

Take the UNDER when a game is outdoors, on grass, with a forecast sustained wind of 13+ mph about 30 minutes before kickoff.

Skip anything below 33°F. Roughly 25 bets a season. Wind kills the shootout — the chance a game beats its total by 10+ falls from 25.6% in calm air to 20.4% at 12 mph. Books move the total about 0.08 points per mph; scoring actually falls 0.26. They travel a third of the distance, and that gap has held for 27 seasons.

Backtest

57.0%

1,221 games, 1999–2025

Since 2018

60.8%

and still rising

Break-even

52.4%

at −110

Record 2010–25

58.2%

391–281 · 9 push

Week 1, 2026 — outdoor grass games

6 outdoor grass games · 1 play · forecasts in for 6 of 6 unplayed. Every game where the venue half of the rule is met, with its forecast and the call. Wind is sustained, gusts shown small. nflweather posts a forecast about five days before kickoff, so later games sit at "forecast pending" until then. Forecasts move; the call that counts is the one ~30 min before kickoff.

Game	Kickoff (ET)	Conditions	Wind	Temp	Total	Verdict
NYJ @ TEN	Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM	Fog	2 mph	90°	38.5	PASS · calm
CLE @ JAX	Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM	Chance Thunderstorms	6 mph	90°	39.5	PASS · calm
ATL @ PIT	Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM	Slight Chance Thunderstorms	7 mph g12	79°	41.5	PASS · calm
CHI @ CAR	Sun Sep 13, 1:00 PM	Clear	1 mph	87°	47.5	PASS · calm
WAS @ PHI	Sun Sep 13, 4:25 PM	Partly Cloudy	6 mph	82°	44.5	PASS · calm
DEN @ KC	Mon Sep 14, 8:15 PM	Slight Chance Rain Showers	13 mph g26	88°	43.5	PLAY UNDER

Every outdoor game since 2018

All 1,396 completed outdoor games with recorded weather. Scored on the official recorded wind from the game book — the same basis as the backtest. Change the thresholds and the record, the P/L and the curve all recompute: this is the rule you'd have been betting, not a fixed one.

Season

Min wind (mph)

Min temp (°F)

Show only the games this rule bets

Bets

—

at $100 each

Record

—

under–over

Hit rate

—

52.4% breaks even

Profit

—

staked —

ROI

—

flat stakes, −110

Running profit — $100 a bet, in the order the games were played

Game	Date	Wk	Surface	Wind	Temp	Line	Points	Result	P/L	Running

Click any column to sort. Highlighted rows are bets under the current thresholds; everything else is shown for context and is never staked. Pushes return the stake. Running is always the bankroll after that game in date order — re-sorting the table does not re-run the P/L, so that column will not read top-to-bottom under another sort.

Read this before betting it

Wind is a forecast, not a fact. The official figure is recorded in the game book at kickoff and does not exist until the game is over. You are always betting a prediction.
That is why 13, not 10. The fitted threshold is 10 mph; the extra 3 mph absorbs forecast error, which otherwise eats about a fifth of the edge.
Sustained, not gusts. The wind shown here is nflweather's sustained figure. Gusts appear as a smaller grey number and are not what the rule was fitted on.
Roof TBD means skip. Retractable stadiums are not marked open or closed until game day.
Discount the headline. The scoring shortfall only justifies about 54–55%, so roughly two points of that 57% is noise.

Schedule, venue, closing total and official weather from nflverse; forecasts from nflweather.com. Warehouse last refreshed 2026-09-12 05:20. Page generated 2026-09-12 10:00 ET.

Not betting advice. A 27-season backtest is not a promise about next Sunday.

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🌬️ NFL Wind Under

Week 1, 2026 — outdoor grass games

Every outdoor game since 2018

Read this before betting it