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Have already been turned off by a few fillies in this opener, so why not try the least exposed option? FLYING HAWLEY had a right to need both of her first two starts; was seemingly just put out for experience on debut; then missed some time heading into her 2nd start; actually ran deceptively well off that layoff; chasing wide on the turn before flattening out; is bred to handle added distance and is out of a dam who improved through racing. MOONLIT will probably beat this field if she runs back to her efforts two and three back; disappointed as the favorite last time at Saratoga, but was compromised by bobbling at the start and getting shuffled back out of the Wilson Chute; can rebound here. FULL OF TACT has had more chances than the rest, but there's nothing wrong with her recent form; outran her odds last time first off the trainer switch to a low-profile barn, and figures to be underrated once again.

There are a few horses with experience who have already shown ability, so this isn't an easy spot for a firster; MAJORITY INTEREST was a $403k Tattersalls purchase as a yearling and has clearly taken a while to get to the races; one glimpse of him working at Payson this spring gives some clues as to why - he's a big, raw gelding who has probably taken some time to round into shape; is impeccably bred with Dubawi and Frankel on the sire lines; Chad Brown is 23/66 (35%, $2.78 ROI) with Klaravich-owned 3YO+ firsters in MSW turf routes over 5 years. If this race were carded at a longer distance, might have instead gone with DONNADOYAWANNA; this leggy son of Constitution relished the stretch-out to 1 1/2 miles two back, but got discouraged after failing to make the lead last time; it's unclear if he's quick enough to get to the front here, though Kendrick Carmouche figures to show more intention than other jocks in this field. Chad's other horse PAY THE PIPER is the one to beat off some solid recent turf performances; not sure there's much more upside here, but he nevertheless is a solid win candidate.

Like the gradual progression for LUZ DE GUIA, who took advantage of a weak field when he broke his maiden in an off the turf race two back; looked totally overmatched when he stepped up to this level last time, but actually ran an underrated race, staying on to just miss 3rd after a difficult wide trip from the Wilson Chute; should appreciate the switch to Belmont, and lands in a race that features plenty of pace. Main rival EZ ROLL finished a few lengths ahead of the top pick last time, but had a better trip, saving ground on the turns before rallying late; is another who will benefit from any pace that develops; the deserving favorite. NUANCED got a tough trip coming off a layoff in that same Sep. 3 race; had to rush up after a poor break from a wide draw, and understandably tired; just still not sure he's quite as good as those 90+ Beyers from last year; took advantage of an inside bias on Nov. 29.

My top 3 selections are all exiting the same Sep. 6 race at Saratoga; MY TOGO might have gotten the toughest trip of all, as nothing went right for him; broke with some speed, but got outrun to the first turn and became rank in traffic; veered out into the first bend and continued 3-wide; found more traffic in upper stretch, taking up at the 3/16-pole and again closer to the wire; is better than that, and would benefit from a more aggressive ride this time as he switches to Ricardo Santana. TIZIO probably would have won that race if he had found running room at the quarter pole; just got held up in traffic for about an eighth of a mile before firing through inside late; the only knock against him is that he got a great trip up until that point, saving ground on both turns; still has upside in his 2nd start. KOTLIKOFF achieved the best result of those exiting that common race, and it's not as if he had an ideal trip either; was hung wide on both turns, but did get a clear run through the lane; must reproduce that form 2nd off the layoff.

Don't have a particularly strong opinion here; one of the 3 ML favorites will probably win, even though they all have their flaws; there's limited upside among any of them, but perhaps SALVATION is the right one to take as he makes his 2nd start off a layoff and first off the claim for Mertkan Kantarmaci; ran some big speed figures for Linda Rice last year; looked a bit rusty in the return and this is a tougher spot than that, but he has a right to improve. Lind Rice entered a pair but will only run FIGHTFORALLEGIANCE, who drops in for a tag for the first time while returning from a layoff; that's perhaps not a great sign, since he performed pretty well against MSW foes this spring. CHILI PALMER didn't run so badly in his debut before falling apart last time at Saratoga; his early speed makes him dangerous here, but get the sense he's a horse who will ultimately be best on turf given his stride and pedigree.

HONOREE has run better than it looks in every allowance attempt since breaking his maiden; got a wide trip from a difficult post position in June, then was beaten by a perfect trip winner after rallying belatedly going a bit too short in July; last time caught a very tough field for the level, won by subsequent Nashville Derby winner Caroline St. Beat; Honoree never had a fair chance, buried inside in traffic all the way through the lane; wants this 9F distance and should have better luck in this smaller field. COACH RYAN finished ahead of the top pick last time, but got a clear outside run through the lane; he's logical right back, but figures to be an underlay. CRESCENDO'S REIN is the wild card as he tries turf for the first time; has some pedigree for it, but must avoid an early pace duel with longshot McDiesel.

A few of the runners with experience have run well on turf, but none look particularly formidable; HUNTING GOODWILL seems like a viable first time starter making his debut for Horacio De Paz, who can win with these types; Essential Quality is an underrated turf sire and he's out of a dam who was placed on turf and showed a preference for this surface; like the steady worktab down at Laurel. GEORGE ST. looks like the one to beat based on his lone turf start; chased home Berta's Stitch, who finished 8th in the G2 Pilgrim last weekend; gets points for finishing well clear of the rest of that group; dangerous if he runs as well coming to Belmont. HETCH HETCHY finished far back in his debut at Saratoga, but was very green before the race and during the running; had some issue settling early and then steadied out between rivals at the quarter pole; can improve quickly as he drops in class.

There appears to be plenty of speed signed on here, but at least FACTUALLY CORRECT is drawn outside all his other pace rivals; 6YO gelding is routinely sharp from the gate, so may have an opportunity to cross over if he catches any rivals flat-footed at the start; has been in great form since the claim by new connections; ran especially well last time, battling back through the lane after setting an honest early pace. VEKINDA moves up in class, but looked like he returned as an improved horse when he came back off the layoff at Saratoga last month; has shown the ability to rate and finish in the past, and that style may be necessary here. RADIO RED is a standout on class, but questions abound after a shockingly dull effort in the Morrissey last time; now drops in for a tag as the connections beg someone to take him; would be easier to trust if the barn wasn't so cold.

There isn't much pace in this conditioned claimer, and WHITBY should have a chance to gradually work his way forward from this outside draw; sometimes gets outrun to the lead and discouraged, but this configuration at Belmont should suit him better than the Wilson Chute race at Saratoga last time; is capable of winning here on his best day, that's a much more attainable goal after the scratch of the likely heavy favorite. JETER didn't run badly in either of his 2 prior dirt efforts; the problem is that both came for the Brad Cox barn, but perhaps he just didn't care for turf and is finally getting back on the right surface. MAGNUM'S MACROBRST finished behind the to pick last time at Saratoga; got mildly shuffled out of the Wilson Chute before staying on to pass half the field; figures to get a more aggressive ride from Ruben Silvera this time, and those tactics worked well three back.

The Chad Brown pair figures to be tough in here, but both are coming off somewhat disappointing efforts; would rather take the upside of GETTING SERIOUS, the lone 3YO in this group; struggled with consistency early in the season, but she seems to have gotten things back on track at Colonial this summer; closed with a rush to go from last to first in that July victory, then was compromised by a sow pace against a tougher stakes field last time; a mile seems like her ideal distance. MARKETPLACEOFIDEAS never saw the rail when she tried this level last time at Saratoga, but it's not as if she was much more than 2 to 3-wide throughout; still wanted to see her finish better through the lane; gets some class relief, and her tactical speed should play well here. GROWTH TRAJECTORY was briefly held up in traffic at the quarter pole last time, but had her chance once getting clear in upper stretch and just flattened out; didn't see enough to take her at a short price.

CITY BLOCKS has been in raging form lately and seems primed to win again; is drawn perfectly outside of her main pace rivals, so should work out a similar trip to the one she got last time at Saratoga; this is a bit of a step up in class for her, but Linda Rice excels with these types; over the last 5 years, Rice is 18/56 (32%, $3.07 ROI) 2nd off the claim with last-out winners coming off a top Beyer. Rice's other entrant NINA KAY seems a likely candidate to pick up pieces underneath; comes off a gate to wire victory going a mile, a distance that had previously been outside of her range; should appreciate the cutback, and figures to sit a good trip in behind the speed. KAY CUP perhaps didn't love the muddy track she encountered off the layoff at Saratoga; has a chance to rebound in her 2nd start back, but still have some questions about whether she can get back to top form after a series of disappointing losses.

Not afraid of any of the favorites in there, so will instead take a shot with ADROIT, who gets on dirt for the first time; her pedigree leans more towards dirt, by Solomini out of a dam who produced multiple dirt winner Bad Larry ($189k); hasn't progressed much on grass, but did show some potential in her 2 sprints, staying on belatedly each time; don't mind this slight cutback as she switches surfaces. SUITED CONNECTORS drops in for a tag for the first time after showing some progression 2nd time out; wasn't facing the toughest maiden special weight field that day, but still should fit well here if she merely holds that form. SAN ANTONIO SARA was mildly disappointing in her only prior start against NY-breds, but did sustain a hard bump in upper stretch that day; didn't do much running against open company down in Florida this year, but returns off a solid series of works at Saratoga.

It doesn't appear that NUMEROLOGY was facing much of quality on debut at Colonial, but not going to get overly caught up in comparing class lines with this lightly raced 2YOs; got away a step slowly and just ran like a filly who badly needed the experience and would want more distance; imposing daughter of Golden Pal has nothing but turf route pedigree on her dam's side; Graham Motion is 9/33 (27%, $2.90 ROI) with maiden 2nd time starters going from sprints to routes on turf over 5 years. DOVES AND HAWKS is the logical favorite based on her runner-up debut effort at Saratoga; got a little keen early, steadying off heels into the first turn, but still put in a solid rally through the lane; can obviously progress 2nd time out, but that expectation will be built into the price. ROYAL VICTORIA is impeccably bred, by top sire Into Mischief out of a daughter of champion Royal Delta; she's a half-sister to stakes-placed turf horse Noble Dynasty, so this appears to be right starting point for her; Mott firsters often need a race, but she seems to be training pretty well for the debut.

AMBITION can run on either surface, but appears to be a touch better on dirt; didn't have much chance when he last raced on this surface out of the Wilson Chute two back at Saratoga, trying to make up ground in a forwardly-dominated affair; his prior dirt form primarily came against tougher company; Chis Elliott has ridden him well in the past and now gets reunited with this guy as he makes his 2nd start off the claim for Rob Atras. PEEK goes out for a barn that has been a bit cold lately, so you have to be mildly concerned about his declining form; yet he did face tougher fields in those spot and now drops back down to a level where he's been successful in the past. My top pick's Atras-trained stablemate EXPENSIVE CUT also rates a long look; this horse is a little cheaper than most of these, but really didn't have a fair chance when he last competed at Saratoga; doesn't like getting rated, and he fought his jockey's restraint through the first half of that race; should settle better cutting back to one turn.

Primarily focusing on firsters here; BUSINESSISBUSINESS goes out for Miguel Clement, who is highly capable with debut runners, especially on turf; Blame is a solid turf sprint influence and the dam was a turf winner; the lone half-sibling was on her want to a debut victory before getting injured in her only start. JORDAN THE CADDY was a $140k OBS March purchase after working a furlong in 10-flat, displaying a smooth, efficient stride; Charlatan is a 16% turf sprint sire; Linda Rice firsters often need a race, but this colt has reportedly been working well for his unveiling. BORAGO seems best of those with experience; the debut perhaps looks a little better on paper than it does on replay; stayed on mildly for 3rd and can obviously build on that performance for Amelia Green, whose runners tend to improve with racing.

There are many options to consider if you're trying to beat the favorite here; the one that intrigues me most is firster NEW TO ME; Lindsay Schultz doesn't win on debut that frequently but can occasionally get the job done with prices; new sire Olympiad is looking more and more like a turf influence, which should come as no surprise given his pedigree; the dam produced stakes-placed dirt router Newtown Pike, who raced for these same connections. It won't be easy taking down clear-cut favorite ALL SHOW, who has run fast enough to win many races at this level already; caught some tough rivals in both prior starts, finishing well each time; is going to be a handful if she brings that form downstate. MAGNUM'S MONSOON was surprisingly live on the tote board in her debut, but didn't do much running during the actual race; perhaps she just didn't care for dirt, as her pedigree leans much more towards grass; can improve quickly with the surface switch, and figures to get ignored this time.

This race appears to set up pretty well for the 2 Linda Rice trainees; ADRIAN is a little easier to trust given her consistent form; ran out of ground when closing in her last two starts at Saratoga, once sprinting and then going a mile out of the Wilson Chute; should appreciate getting back to a true one-turn mile at Belmont, since that appears to be her best distance; also should get some pace developing ahead of her. Stablemate BASEBALL LADY figures to contribute to that pace setup after winning her 15 days ago using aggressive tactics; did take advantage of a mildly speed-favoring surface that day, but still ran well to beat a strong field for the level; drew well outside her main pace rivals and is dangerous coming right back; SPYING has run a couple of races in Kentucky that would make her competitive here, though her best effort came nearly a year ago at Churchill; has been a bit dull since returning this season, and now switches barns after going through a digital sale for $42k.

A few fillies in this field exit the same Sep. 7 race at this level at Saratoga; DAYLIGHT DREAMER got bumped at the start of that race and was never able to attain forward position; still stayed on well through the lane once she was angled into the clear late; showed her potential when aggressively ridden by Kendrick Carmouche three back at Aqueduct and would be dangerous if able to get back to those tactics here; returning to a 6F turf sprint should suit her. RAISED is an interesting acquisition by Mel Giddings, who doesn't send too many slips through the claim box; Liam's Map is a solid turf influence and there is some grass pedigree if you dig deep in this female family; has to improve to compete against this group, but shows some solid drills on grass upstate. MIDTOWN MISCHIEF feels like the one to beat after closing well for third in that common race last time at Saratoga; not sure that stretching back out to 6F is ideal for her, but she's in solid form right now.

MUMBET back to the grass, drops another notch in company after getting involved in suicidal pace duel trying Tapeta for the first time lastr month. Bred best of all on dams side to stay the distance. Re--unites with Figueroa. Lots to like in opener.SWELL turned in even effort in lone try against MSW opposition when debuting this summer but bred for the lone and likely a nice fir for this tag. Barn can have one ready off the layoff. CAUSESHZPRECOCIOUS another getting some class relief and returning to what may ultimately prove her preferred surface.

MALBEC gets significant rider change from triple bug plus an equipment change shedding blinkers after returning from significant layoff with much needed and somewhat troubled try several weeks earlier. Well bred sort never lived up to promise but should be fine for this tag.HENRY'S BUDDY knocking on door at the level but a beaten favorite in each of his last pair. Logical choice in present form. CHING CHING winless in 14 tries, most for this tag, but on the improve of late. Should again grab a minor share.

LITTLE PRINCE turned in very promising effort in debut and getting blinkers for the return. Switch to turf a question although dam's lone victory came on grass. Worked bullet presumably with blinkers for this. TILOU has run well in both previous starts over the surface although did disappoint as even money choice last time when chasing hom Riyah Way who flattered effort becoming a stakes winner at next asking. MISCHIEF MEISTER a promising looking juvenile who looked good prepping for this on both turf and Tapeta. Could prove spoiler if away clean from tricky inside post.

TRAVEL HAPPY drops for this tag for first time and back on preferred surface today. Figures on or with pace from outset in a field lacking a great deal of early foot. MISPRINT a very popular item at claim box all season long. Has been freshened since haltered by present connections 10 weeks earlier but has proven a good fit at this level most every time. Can't ignore. DRUM ROLL another in new hands and off a bit of a break coming into the event. An easy winner with this kind over the surface during the spring.

CARCONE a late running third when dropped for this tag for first time several weeks ago and clearly best of the bunch in light of unlucky trip that began with slow beginning from the rail and very wide trip into stretch. Taken to be along in time if able to secure better early position at the break. COMPLEXED the only new face to this lineup and one who is turning back in distance and coming off significant layoff. Chased, faded in key race when last seen back in July. Fits with these even at this distance at best. SOFOCLES defeated same bunch last time from an inside post but drawn inside once again, might prove vulnerable at short price if not getting same clean run in rematch.

INHONOROFSONNY obviously exiting best yet and much improved of late. Better yet seemingly the best late threat in a field loaded with speed. Shaky nod even though he does lose Reyes to CLASSY PRINCE who is strictly one to fear returning for this tag and off some good a.m. actively prepping for the event. Main caveat the inside draw with several other fleet ones to his outside. Trip the key at what figures to be relatively short price. KING MORPHEUS better drawn on extremely outside and another in here piloted by Reyes in their most recent start. Back for proper tag. Should prove good fit today.

JACK KEROUAC one of two 5 time winners in this lineup exiting impressive state bred allowance tally on Tapeta. Seems just as comfortable on grass, shaky nod with a clean run in wide open spot. MALCOLM X never really had much chance after dropping far back following unlucky beginning last time. Beaten less than a length with same kind two back. VENEZUELAN HOPE another who knows how to find the winner's circle and solid fit at this level although perhaps better suited to synthetic than the turf.

AZAM had last start flattered when fourth place finisher ARABIA WILD returned to beat softer in his next start. Ran winning race that day before being caught later after race long pace duel. Catches another field loaded with speed, expect to see him try to race off early running today. Aforementioned Arabia Wild perhaps a little stronger now than when finishing behind both Aram and key contender MOVE JESSE MOVE in their previous encounter back in July. In new and dangerous hands off the claim. MJM another freshened off his third place finish under similar conditions on 7/26 and likely to prove the major beneficiary if things get a bit too heated up front.

FOSTER LANE, the day's best, not disgraced against open, MSW company launching career this summer going 5 1/2 furlongs at the Spa. Galloped out willingly enough now drops to more suitable spot at second asking. Barn sent out another N Y class dropper to the easiest kind of win here this past weekend. SERRANIA maintaining top form but a bit of a hanging sort against slightly softer. One to fear but at yet another short price. DEPENDENCE over-matched last time when turning in even try in key race from which winner returned to register 85 Beyer scoring at the N1X allowance level next time. Stretches out, might be ready for best yet in third start of current form cycle.